Hurricane Gustav will make landfall in Louisiana tomorrow (Monday). I’ll say near Chauvin. This is bad news for Louisana and for New Orleans in particular. Thankfully, he weakened while crossing Cuba so it is unlikely that Gustav will be a Cat 4 storm when he comes ashore. However, his storm surge is likely to exceed Cat 3 standards on exactly the side that New Orleans will be in which case, the levees will fail. Sounds like a great Labor Day weekend.
Tropical Storm Hanna will annoy the Bahamas all week before becoming a Hurricane and heading for Savannah. But that is more than 5 days off an a lot can happen in the interim.
There is an area of disturbed weather that I believe is being referred to as 97L which is now West of the Cape Verde Islands. It has a high potential for developing into a storm of some kind. More as that develops.
It seems that old Gustav has decided to skip the whole “tropical storm” thing and go straight for Hurricane status. He also has decided, it seems, not to visit key west. More importantly, Gustav is forecasted to become a major hurricane (read: category 3+). The water is warm and apparently there is very little shear. Right now, Gustav looks to be heading South of Cuba but that just means that he will end up in the middle of the gulf’s warm deep waters.
It may be too early to say it but Louisiana should start thinking about getting ready. Even though, historically, no hurricane in the month of August that was close to where Gustav is has ever hit Louisiana doesn’t mean that Gustav can’t do it now (but it is still an interesting fact and well worth keeping in mind). The GFDL, UKMET, and NAM all have Gustav heading toward that coast (the NOGAPS has him heading for the Yucatan). Still, it is a long way off; Gustav won’t threaten the US until next week.
A depression looks to turn into a tropical storm sometime in the next 24 hours. His name will be Gustav. And, right now he is expected to visit Haiti and then Cuba before sliding up Cuba’s northern coastline. 5 days hence is anyone’s guess but expect it to cruise through the Straights of Florida, threatening the Keys, and then into the warm water of the gulf where, unless conditions deteriorate, Gustav might very well become a hurricane.
The outer bands of Fay should be coming across Tampa in just over an hour. Usually I would be excited about this. A Tropical storm or, at best, a Cat One is just going to be a lot of rain and a great reason to have some drinks. However, I am supposed to be moving out of my apartment on Wednesday. So, I should, in theory be packing up my U-haul trailer on Tuesday right when the storm is passing Tampa. And, even if I get it loaded sans rain, I then have to drive North in that mess. Ugh.
The tracking models are not consistent yet but that is only in matters of degree. The storm is hitting Florida. But given its trajectory and the shape of Florida, a very minor change can mean the difference between hitting Naples and Hitting St. Pete. The official track track has it coming ashore in Ft Meyers but the probability cone stretches from the Everglades to Tallahassee. UKMet’s model is perhaps the most distressing, having it stay just off-shore as the storm cruises North wrecking havoc all the way up the coast. That one also takes the storm North to Atlanta, so I’m betting that’s how it will go since it will make my life the hardest.
I have to say though that I do think this is neat timing, a nice bookend to my life here in Florida. That is, there is a hurricane coming to exactly where I live on the very last days that I will be living here. That is pretty cool. Its like nature is giving me a going away present.
There are a couple of things that are making me slow on the uptake this season: 1) my dissertation, 2) le tour, and 3) its JULY!
Continue reading ‘Action!’
It appears that I have been lax. Not only did a tropical storm appear without a comment from me but this is the second storm of the season. What can I say, I’m kind of on vacation. Continue reading ‘Bertha’
Guess what is coming up? You got it Hurricane Season. It starts on Sunday. Continue reading ‘That time of year’
Mostly, I just wanted a post with that title. Jerry is dissolving and won’t really bother anyone. Continue reading ‘Tropical Storm Jerry’
I have for some time now been under the apparent misunderstanding that sub-tropical storms formed outside some strange tropical buffer zone (its been obvious even to me that not all tropical storms formed between the tropics of Capricorn and Cancer. But, it appears that the designation has to do with the circulation pattern and where the major wind bands are. Continue reading ‘Sub-tropical Storm Gabrielle’
You might be wondering why I haven’t said much on the subject of Dean. Well, I have no excuse, unless you count editing the photographs I took in Maryland as an excuse, in which case I have one. Continue reading ‘Hurricane Dean’