So, Wilma is back offshore, I guess we’ll know tomorrow where she’ll end up. When she makes her turn, its off to the races. Damn, this storm is going to fly once she starts heading east.

Imagine that it is cyclical and that there is global warming. If we were in the trough of the cycle and the world was getting warmer, then it might appear as if there was no abatement in the refquency of storms.

Global warming, it seems to me, is exaserbating the cycle that is already in effect.

The real problem though is that there is amazingly little data on hurricane frequency. I’ve mentioned this in other places before. Each year there are a number of hurricanes that never come near shore. Pior to the widespread use of satelites for weather prediction it would have been mere chance that these stoms would have been known about at all. So, 150 years ago, how many storms were there really? I don’t know. Prior to the 1800’s how much data do we have at all? It seems that at best we have 50 years of reliable hurricanefrequency data and there is absolutely no way to make a comment about long term trends in weather patterns based on that. There is a guy doing paleometeorology, that is, he is using sediment layers in specifc regions to try to look at past weather events. The problem is that it only works in some areas and it only tells if the hurricane came to that place.

The other big problem is where the earth is in her natural cycle. Are we at the tail end of or the beginning of a mild ice age?

Also, I’ve read that global warming can actually cause a reduction in the number of storms. Hurricanes form because of a difference in sea and air temperatures. If the air temperature gets above a certain amount it becomes very difficult to form a hurricane.

A professor of mine talks about in terms of the amount of energy in the environment, tha with global warming there is more energy, so its not the number of storms but there strength that is important. I’ve got some problems with that. Its not like we receive any more radiation from the sun than before and in global warming more clouds will form, which will block out more of the suns rays, which should lead to less sunlight heating the ocean. Its really complicated, and depends a lot on what level of the atmosphere to warming is taking place. So called global warming is actually a cooling in the atmosphere.

I think the recent trend is because of the the cyclical nature of weather more than global warming, but global warming has affected weather patterns which as had an affect on where these storms end up.

Hud, when was that festival in Key West again? I’m asking because of the unfortunate refrain from the Flintstone’s theme song: we’ll have a gay old time! Too weird.