I was going to go to bed but I decided that I needed to talk about this instead.
Wilma is going to become a far worse storm than she is being given credit for. She is expected to become a strong category four storm, I imagine most places are talking about that. A storm of this magnitude can crush a coastline. But it isn’t specifically her wind speed that has me concerned tonight. I
f you take a look at her expected track you’ll notice a substantial increase in forward speed from Friday to Saturday. If this happens then Wilma will be a cat 4 in name only, her forward speed looks like it will be at least 20mph (possibly higher), which means she will be booking. That speed will be added to her wind speed on the southern side of the storm. I know, normally I talk about wind speeds added to the top or the right, but this storm is, or will be, heading East and that makes a difference.
The southern portion of the storm is, if the storm follows her track, where the Keys are. A category 4 storm has surges in excess of 15 feet above normal (and waves are above that), “Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles.” The foreward momentum of the storm should increase the storm surge the same way higher sustained winds increase wave height. Key West’s elevation is 8 feet. If the eye wall comes anywhere near Key West the island will be washed completely over and possibly away. This is a bit hyperbolic but I’m trying to catch your attention. The Keys should be evacuating now.
But all this doom and gloom depends entirely on where this storm is going.
Wilma is currently heading WNW at near 8mph, she is expected to begin to turn Northward and eventually turn Eastward, all the models agree, but when that happens makes a huge difference to where she ends up. A couple of days ago I thought there was a good chance that the storm would come near Tampa. Now, I am not so sure, it looks more likely that Naples will get hit, which doesn’t, by the way, pull it far enough away from Key West. Some of the tracking has had Wilma driving ove rthe tip of Cuba, which would cause her to end up farther South on the American mainland. Other model guidance shows her heading over the tip of the Yucatan penninsula, which would have her heading farther North on the US mainland. It doesn’t seem that any of the guidance has her heading straight West anymore.
[the 1am update just registered a central pressure of 901mb and found winds of 150mph, which makes Wilma just on the edge of a cat 5. If she came aground at this pressure she would be the second strongest storm in US history (Katrina had a pressure of 927 when she came ashore in Mississippi. Andrew had 922. Camille had 909). The only storm stronger hit the Keys in 1935, the infamous Labor Day storm that washed away Flager's railroad.]
The sky isn’t falling. This won’t be like New Orleans; there aren’t any levees to break. But it will be like Katrina’s effect on the Mississippi coast and quite possibly worse (depending on exactly where Wilma ends up). Last year the area just north of Naples/ Ft Meyers was hit by hurricane Charley, they could feasibly be hit again. We’ll all know better by Thursday where this storm is going to hit. The one thing that is nice about this storm right now is that she is very, very small. Hurricane force winds extend only 15 miles from the center although tropical storm force winds are 155 miles from the center (which means that if no part of South Florida is beyond her reach).
One other thing I would like to add. If this storm hits Key West the same religious homophobic assholes who came out decrying Katrina as God’s punishment on the wicked city of New Orleans are going to do it again. Key West has an annual week-long party called Fantasy Fest that is a Mardi Gras style Halloween party that is very gay friendly. That party starts on the 21st this year, the day before the hurricane looks like she will cruise by.
I guess thats all I have to say right now. I’m sure more discussion will follow.
Wilma is freaking me out. Lowest recorded (unofficial) pressure! Cat 5 overnight! HOLY CRAP! Punta Gorda is in her headlights, and I’m afraid for Miami too since some of the models have her heading more southish; I haven’t seen any recent ukmet or nogaps; the GFDL is taking her more northeast I think, but damn. And Tampa! Eeek!. I only pray that the de-intensification hinted at by the discussion does certainly come to pass. Freaking freak!
Oh, hey, tourists and other non-residents have to evacuate the keys starting at noon today.
Enhance your calm.
Wilma is indeed a frightening storm but she can’t maintain this strength. Plus, once her forward momemtum begins to increase shearing will start to tear the storm apart. She’ll still be a big, strong storm when she hits but she won’t be the strongest storm ever recorded.
The tracking does appear to me moving a little farther North, which doesn’t bode well for Tampa, or more probably Sarasota.
i found is somewhat of a surprise, from my vantage point, that this thing jumped from cat. 3 to cat. 5 in pretty short order. maybe it’ll burn itself out.
any thoughts on why so many hurricanes? is it cyclical?
The NHC says it is a cycle with a large amplitude, basically. And that we’e back in the high-frequency cycle.
Hud, when was that festival in Key West again? I’m asking because of the unfortunate refrain from the Flintstone’s theme song: we’ll have a gay old time! Too weird.
Oh, the Miami Art Museum is going to start moving work out of the permenant collection show and into a relatively more secure space at 3 PM because of Wilma.
Cyclical, naw man it’s those damn liberal scientists tryin to make us believe in this global warmin shit . . .
wouldn’t the idea of it being cyclical be the exact opposite of ‘global warming’ as a/the cause?
cyclical and global warming are not at odds with each other.
Imagine that it is cyclical and that there is global warming. If we were in the trough of the cycle and the world was getting warmer, then it might appear as if there was no abatement in the refquency of storms.
Global warming, it seems to me, is exaserbating the cycle that is already in effect.
The real problem though is that there is amazingly little data on hurricane frequency. I’ve mentioned this in other places before. Each year there are a number of hurricanes that never come near shore. Pior to the widespread use of satelites for weather prediction it would have been mere chance that these stoms would have been known about at all. So, 150 years ago, how many storms were there really? I don’t know. Prior to the 1800’s how much data do we have at all? It seems that at best we have 50 years of reliable hurricanefrequency data and there is absolutely no way to make a comment about long term trends in weather patterns based on that. There is a guy doing paleometeorology, that is, he is using sediment layers in specifc regions to try to look at past weather events. The problem is that it only works in some areas and it only tells if the hurricane came to that place.
The other big problem is where the earth is in her natural cycle. Are we at the tail end of or the beginning of a mild ice age?
Also, I’ve read that global warming can actually cause a reduction in the number of storms. Hurricanes form because of a difference in sea and air temperatures. If the air temperature gets above a certain amount it becomes very difficult to form a hurricane.
A professor of mine talks about in terms of the amount of energy in the environment, tha with global warming there is more energy, so its not the number of storms but there strength that is important. I’ve got some problems with that. Its not like we receive any more radiation from the sun than before and in global warming more clouds will form, which will block out more of the suns rays, which should lead to less sunlight heating the ocean. Its really complicated, and depends a lot on what level of the atmosphere to warming is taking place. So called global warming is actually a cooling in the atmosphere.
I think the recent trend is because of the the cyclical nature of weather more than global warming, but global warming has affected weather patterns which as had an affect on where these storms end up.
So what do you think about Wilma? Think she’ll hang out over the Yucatan and spare us a bunch of misery. I effing hope so. I think it looks like she’s going to cruise right over me–at least when you look at the wind steering currents; I know the models have her heading up your way . . . .
I think she is going to run across Naples as either a cat 2 or a cat 3. But what really has me interested is to see if she goes over Lake Okeechobee.
msumia- you sound like one of those liberal global warming wackos to me. I think your all in cahoots with the damn liberal media. Global warming, what a bunch of shit.
Alpha exsists.
Yeah, I’v been meaning to you say something about Alpha but obviously haven’t gotten around to it.
So, Wilma is back offshore, I guess we’ll know tomorrow where she’ll end up. When she makes her turn, its off to the races. Damn, this storm is going to fly once she starts heading east.