It appears that I have been lax. Not only did a tropical storm appear without a comment from me but this is the second storm of the season. What can I say, I’m kind of on vacation.
The most interesting thing so far this year is NOAA’s new interface. It has the neat little feature of giving you a heads-up on possible upcoming storms. So it was that last night I noticed that there was a good chance of a storm developing off the coast of Africa; only, I didn’t mention it to anyone and now it is a storm named Bertha. Bertha is way over by Africa still and doesn’t look to threaten even Bermuda. So, everyone can relax.
However, there is a disturbed area just west of the windward isles that has a low probability of becoming anything. I don’t expect much to happen until at least August. But, I will try to keep up with the goings and comings of the weather.
sure you thought there was a good chance of a storm . . . your new name is captain hindsite . . .
What kind of vacation are you on?
One that isn’t so much a vacation as an extended stay. I had not realized before how much fun Atlanta could be. Previously, it has always been a place to avoid during rush hour (aka, daylight). Now, I am hanging out exploring the environs.
Bertha has been trending on the low side of NOAA’s predictive tracks, which means that She is now, more than likely, going to head south of Bermuda, which make landfall on the Eastern Seaboard possible but not probably.
Jeff Masters, over at the weather underground, points out that Bertha is over water that is at best 25 degrees Celsius which is below the theoretical threshold for hurricane production. However, she will move over waters that are 26 degrees on Sunday, 27 on Monday, and 28 on Tuesday. So, Bertha could become a storm by Tuesday, which would be important because if she continues to trend South then she will threaten the Seaboard as a hurricane.
Bertha has started turning North. She now looks to pass East of Bermuda. Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief.
Check Bertha out! She virtually stalled just off the coast of Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds are just off shore, which I suspect must be fairly threatening. My grandfather told me about a hurricane that hit Miami back when he was a kid, it came part way ashore and then stalled, it just sat there for hours. This is basically the worst-case scenario for a storm; speed is bad but sustained wind is downright devastating. Plus, imagine the devastation to the shoreline: the erosion would be tremendous. And, lets not forget the storm surge just sitting there, wind pushing the high waves against all sorts of things not designed for waves. Yeah, a stalled storm is bad news.
But, this is actually good news for Bermuda. Standing still is death for a storm. A storm derives its strength for warm waters, a hurricane is essentially the product of evaporation and heat transfer. Warm water at the surface heats the heat, normally I point out that this caused the air to rise which draws in new air and begins the cyclonic circulation. However, for every action there is an equal but opposite reaction, the warmed air means that the water is cooled. Since the water at the surface is cooler it must descend drawing in more water. While the storm is moving forward, this process actually helps the hurricane by allowing the warmer lower water to reinforce the strength of the storm. But, when the storm stops moving forward it runs out of warm local water, it begins to draw deep water to the surface and deep water is cold.
Bertha, by standing still has begun to strangle herself, she is rapidly weakening and, in fact, is no longer a hurricane, which is good news for Bermuda.
There is another story to be told here but I’m not really in the position to go into it right now. We tend to only look at the effect of hurricanes on the land but there is a very large influence on the sea itself. I suspect that it is much like the necessary devastation of a brush fire; the ocean ecology is designed to accommodate these monsters of wind and rain, so much so that the changes wrought by each storm must be necessary to the very survival of the Carribean Sea even though it may appear to wreck and destroy various habitats. But, as I said, thats a discussion for another day.