You might be wondering why I haven’t said much on the subject of Dean. Well, I have no excuse, unless you count editing the photographs I took in Maryland as an excuse, in which case I have one.
Hurricane Dean currently has sustained winds of 150 mph and is moving 17 mph (which, if you are in the right quadrant means that sustained winds can be as high as 167 mph). Dean is a category 4 but could become a category 5 any time. This is a powerful hurricane that will become more powerful before it makes landfall.
Haiti and the Dominican Republic will feel the force of this storm; they are one the ‘bad’ side. Although, luckily, Dean is rather compact; hurricane force winds extend only 60 miles. So, they might escape the worst damage.
Jamaica, on the other hand, will get pummeled by this storm. Unless Dean shifts course he will attack Jamaica with little or no consideration; he won’t even slow down. And this is where things can get really out of control. Dean is currently over water that is about 85 degrees but once he gets to Jamaica the water temperature will be up around 88 or 89. As you know, warm was is the engine that drives hurricanes. Dean looks to come ashore in Jamaica sometime around 2pm Sunday, the heat of the day (or it would be if it weren’t raining). On his current track Dean really will hit dead center, which to my mind means its unlikely that he will but the tracking is fairly uniform on this storm so its a distinct possibility. I can’t stress enough how bad this could be for Jamaica.
It doesn’t end there however because Dean will then re-emerge into warm waters before hitting the Yucatan and/or the Mexican coast. And he may, <i>may</I> hit southern Texas. He should do all of this as either a category 4 or category 5 storm.
What does this mean for most of us? Well, you should all get prepared, by your supplies, get your head in the right place. You should expect to see lots of images of meteorologists standing in the rain talking about how amazing the storm is. You should also expect to see a lot of people comparing this to Katrina. And, if things are really bad, you might even see newcasters walking around in the aftermath, helping people. It’ll be tough, but we can get through this together.
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