Forgive me, I have had a few.However there are two tropical storms out there. Carl brought this to my attention. Apprently, NHC waits until after I check the site to post the big changes.
Right now there are two storms; tropical storm Debby which is currently threatening the middle of nowhere and tropical storm Ernesto, which is threatening western Cuba on or about Monday. More news as things become moresincerely a threat. The thing I hate is unsincere hurricanes. THat is, hurricanes that talk big but really are nothing but talk. Man, I hate how they front that they are all tough but when push comes to shove, they have no teeth. If you are going to be hard, then be hard. Don’t play at being hard, that hurts all of us, those that are hard and those that are not.
Ernesto looks to become a full fledged storm moving into the gulf and onto shore by Wednesday. Currently the tracking is unclear but it appears that the storm could end up anywhere from Lousianna to South Florida. Obviously, it will have to cross Cuba first. More as it developes.
looks like ernesto might be 4 reals.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5+gif/025435W_sm.gif
UH! YO!!! Would you please lay off that grad school distraction and tell us what you think about Olde Ernesto?
So, I’ve got about 10 minutes to write this before I have to head off and teach class.
Ernesto seems to have lost all real direction; he’s a slacker. Cuba has split the system and even though he’ll likely recover once back out over open water, it likely won’t be fast enough for him to become a storm before coming ashore in Miami. So, Miami is probably going to feel the affects of a mid range tropical storm; lots of rain and a good bit of wind, but nothing crazy. Central Pressure is 1007 millibars and winds speeds are around 40mph (extending 100 miles from the center).
What is of interst however, is the the storm, after passing by Ocochobee will go back out into the Atlantic (I hope they launch that shuttle), where it shoudl restrengthen before coming ashore in South Carolina as hurricane.
Now, if I ignore all the guidance and just look at the trend of this storm to be pulled farther and farther East I can make this claim. I suspect that the storm will not score a direct hit on Miami at all, but will, intead, stay offshore. This is good insofar as it means that the weakest parts of the storm will hit the coast, but bad in that it means that the storm will not lose any significant strength and could even intensify as it moves North. This could mean that Ernesto could come ashore in North Carolina (I did say North) as a stronger cat 2 or 3. Bear in mind that I am no meterologist and I have not even looked at the data from which the predictions are drawn.
Having said all that, Miami should start feeling this storm tomorrow, with the worst coming ovrnight. Tampa, looks only to get some rain. The rest of the Eastern Seaboard needs to be concerned and the mountainous regions of Virginia and West Virgina need to check the quality of their damns.
HA! Awesome. I hope you can pull the same “I’ve only got ten minutes to write this” in philosophy, ’cause that was a darn good 5 paragraphs.
Yeah, not much to go on for a little while anyway; I’m totally impatient for data! But I wish Ernesto would blow away.
Okay,so, as of the 11pm update things a even more uncertain. Ernesto, while even less powerful (barely able to maintain even tropical storm status) is now likely to trend farther West. The UKMet and the A98E models actually show the system moving into the Gulf before turning back inland. That is, The storm might be heading towards Sarasota. The thing is teh GFDL and the NHC still have the storm heading for Homestead. So, like I said, things are even more uncertain.
On the plus side, the storms continued stay in Cuba is greatly weakening the system; no matter where it ends up in Florida, its going to be far weaker than it would ahve otherwise. The Eastern Seaboard is still a big question mark though. Just going to have to wait and see.
blah blah blah.
Ernesto’s central pressure is 1005mb, winds are about 45mph extending 105 miles from the center. he is rapidly approaching the Keys. While this kind of wind and rain might be a problem for lots of places, and it will certainly be a nuisance, it shouldn’t pose any serious threat to South Florida. Two years ago several hurricanes ran through this area and last year Katrina cruised by as a cat1 before heading the Louisianna. Annoying, yes. Threatening? No.
We’ll have to wait and see about the Carolinas
Man, it’s barely even raining. And there’s no wind. Maybe later, I guess. Or maybe never!
Oh well, still got tomorrow off!
Oh, something is wacky on the comment times; it’s 9:42 PM EDT.
The wacky comment times is all part of a subversive communist plot.
The eye of Ernesto, such as it is, has fully come ashore. The thing is, Ernesto essentially tore himself to shreds getting there. He still has recognizable circulation but the core of inner clouds that would usually make up the eye wall, fell apart hours ago. Hence, no rain in Miami.
I need to quote the NHC’s forecaster Franklin from the 11pm update “THE GFDL STILL WANTS TO MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL…THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FOR A CAROLINA’S LANDFALL IS ONLY REDUCED SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.” I love that the NHC is still calling for a hurricane simply because they respect the model; that is great. A professor in my department who does philosophy of science has his emphasis in modeling; very strange.
Okay, things to look for. Carolina in ‘06. comin’ strong, baby! Also, what Ernesto is going to do to Okeechobee. He has weakened a good bit, so that’s a bonus for the lake but a body of water that size can always cause problems; the most deadly storm in Florida’s history is the 1928 “Lake Okeechobee” storm (2,500 died the 2nd worst in US history). Also, we should keep our eyes on Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center. I’m not really worried about them, the storm is fairly light, but damn that is some expensive hardware out there.
As of 2am, Ernesto has a pressure of 1003mb and his winds are 45mph.
As of 11:25 pm Ernesto had regained tropical storm status; aka ‘its on Carolina!’ More tomorrow.
If I can trust the radar signatures, parts of North Carolina have already had 10 inches of rain. Expect lots of flooding in the East coast states.