Ten days into the season and already we have tropical depression one!I had been thinking, last week, about writing a post concerning the likelihood of a tropical storm/ hurricane this early in the season. I’ve been keeping my eye on sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and the water just isn’t warm enough to provide the right breeding ground for storms. For example, the water around the Cape Verde islands isn’t even 80 degrees.
But the Carribean is a whole other story. With sea surface temperatures up at about 84 degrees all around Cuba it is just a matter of time before something got organized. TD-1 is expected to hit Florida sometime Monday, anwhere between the bend in Florida’s elbow (UKMET) on the North to Ft Meyers (BAMM) on the South. Predicting exactly where its going to hit will be tough though because they don’t exactly know where the center is. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it hits, which means there will be wind and rain but nothing too major.
I expect the media to going apey over this; its the first storm after last season. But buy into the hype. Although, there will be something interesting to look for. If the projected track is accurate then late mid to late Monday the storm will be blowing water into the mouth of Tampa Bay, which means water levels in the bay are going to rise but because of the relatively low strength of this “weather event” it shouldn’t be enough to flood anything. On the bright side, Florida could really use the rain which is even now beginning to cover over our fair penninsula.
Hurricane season may have officially started ten days ago but as far as I am concerned it starts today.
hell yes! I think I am more excited to read a Hud-icane report than anything. You got your supplies all stocked up?
Nope, I am totally bereft of supplies. I have no bottled water, no extra batteries, no non-perishable foods. I haven’t gotten cash from an atm and I didn’t fill my car up with gas. But then again, I don’t worry about tropical storms; you’ve got to be at the eye wall for these to be really mean. Big thunderstorms can cause as much damage as a tropical storm; tropical storms range anywhere from 39 to 74 mph. This isn’t a message you really want to give to folks living on the water though. Its always better to be safe than sorry. In theory, I must turn in a chapter on Monday so I don’t know how much reporting I will be able to do.
The models look like they are converging on the area North of Tampa but the system is still really disorganized and they haven’t yet found its center so its all a little iffy at the moment. No worries, this is a nice warm up for the season, it’ll give everyone the chance to make sure they have the bugs worked out of their systems.
Right, so TD-1 is now TS-1 aka Alberto. He is still not terribly well organized and is still expected to hit Florida, although the cone of potential impact has widened to include the Tallahassee area (I really need to learn what towns are on the coast up there).
However, there is an interesting new developement. Two of the models predeict that ALberto will hang out in the gulf for a while. Perhaps not so oddly, the two models that predict a western turn are the two models that previously held the out edges of the model predicitons. UKMET and BAMM now show the system stalling and then turning West towards Texas.
So, the big news? Its rainy in Florida. Woo-woo, who woulda thunk it.
Alberto now has winds of 69mph, which brings him very close to being a category 1 hurricane. Very impressive. He is the little storm that could. He is moving to the North North-East at just over 6 mph with a central pressure of 997mb. They expect Alberto to pass over slightly cooler waters and so should not strengthen significantly but it is still a possibility that he reaches hurricane status. The predicted path takes the storm not terribly far from Tallahassee but should not pose that city much of a threat.
I ought to talk about how water depth affects the strength of a storm and how it also affects storm surge but I need to get back to work. Suffice to say that coastal areas need to be concerned with this storm.
So, here’s an interesting little tid-bit from the 11pm update. the storm’s minimum central pressure has dropped 2mb from 997 to 995. In itself, this might mean nothing. Seriously, these numbers are extrapolated from other data, either by applying a formula to alter the pressures found from dropsondes or by figuring on changes from nearby bouys or weather stations. The minimum central pressure should be the lowest pressure of the system and should be found at the center of the storm but rarely does surface level equipment ever find its way to the heart of a storm, so its all really a fancy kind of educated guesswork.
Why do I bring it up, you ask. Because this kind of drop usually indicates a strengthening of the system even given the inaccuracies of the measuring tools. Add to this that the NHC believes there to be lots of unstable air in front of the storm and it seems as if the possibility that Alberto becomes a hurricane has just gotten better. See, unstable air is basically air with no clear purpose, its directionless, its got no plan. And like a directionless teenager this air can easily be redirected like an indoctrinee to a cult. If the air in front of the hurricane was part of a front, or a storm cell, or high pressure ridge, that air would have a purpose. The air would be harder for the hurricane to push through and it would be harder for the hurricane to get that air to serve its purposes.
Alberto has a good chance of picking up some followers before he makes landfall and that can only make things worse for the local townsfolk where he comes ashore.
So, Alberto’s wind speeds have dropped to about 65mph even though he is maintaining a minimum central pressure of about 995mb. He is appraching landfall at about 10mph and should come ashore probably around 10am or thereabouts. Thanks for the rain.
hudicane season is the best word phrase i’ve heard all week…and that includes ‘here’s your check’