Vindauga

Make sure you’ve bought batteries its hurricane season.I recently caught Max Mayfield, directory of the National Hurricane Center on CSPAN2. Here’s a quote “I’m convinced that Camile killed more people last year than it did in 1969.” What he means is that more people that survived Camille took that as evidence for not having to evacuate for Katrina and that they suffered the consequences.

So, NOAA’s prediction is “13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become ‘major’ hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.” (Conrad Lautenbacher) This is, if accurate, higher than average. Dr Mayfield emphasises that what is important is to “prepare, prepare, prepare” and that “One hurricane hitting near where you live is enough to make it a bad season.”

Having said that, lets be clear, this is a prediction of the number of storms that will form in the North Atlantic this season, not a prediction about the number of storms that will make landfall in the US. This is an amazingly important difference, A season could have only 4 storms and if they all made US landfall it could easily be one of the worst on record. Likewise, we could run through all the letters in the alphabet and have none make landfall. They cannot predict how many of these storms will hit the US, and certainly not how many will hit heavily populated regions.

I’m preaching temperance here folks. I realize that the Gulf Coast is probably going to go bananas in preparation this year, I can’t really blame them. But one should not become overzealous in our fear of storms. But neither should we act as if the inevitable will find its way to our door. It doesn’t take much to be ready.

You need batteries, flashlights, maybe some candles, a decent weather radio, non-perishable foods, and water. You need to know whether or not you will remain in your home or whether you will evacuate; it is not enough to decide these topics later. You need to have considered under what conditions you will leave (a cat 1 might not be reason to leave but what about a cat 4? what about a cat 3 from the east; don’t underestimate how the direction of a storm affects your position. Also, be aware of the possiblity of which part of the storm will affect you. If you are staying, try to get the materials necessary for securing your homestead before the threat of a storm is upon you. If you are in Florida, then take advantage of the tax holiday on hurricane supplies. If you have trees, consider getting them trimmed. Consider having your roof inspected. Take care of any leaks and clear any rubish from your yard. There isn’t really much else to it. And be prepared to get refills on your prescriptions. Once you’ve taken these steps, you are mostly prepared, only a review and reconsideration will be necessary when the storm comes.
Now, since last year the US has admitted that global warming is taking place (go US). This can have an affect besides the purported increase in the number of storms (I say purported only because it is unclear whether the recent flurry of storms is caused by warmer overall temperatures or if it is part of the natural cycle of hurricanes). A rise in sea temperatures will make a difference to storms, not just where the storm ends up but also how much damage its surge does. You would be surprised what a one inch change in sea level would do to the gulf coast. Also, increased freshwater at the poles could have an affect on hurricanes by lowering the saline content of the ocean. Planet Ocean is a complex inter-related, inter-connected organism.

Finally, my own special prediction. I don’t think this hurricane season is going to be a big deal. I have no data to support this, no discussions of El Nino, no reference to temperatures in the Gulf. I only refer to the statistical probablity of a storm hitting the United States. After two very active years, I suspect that, by the law of averages, things will be less active. I may be jumping the gun, there might be several more active years to go before things settle down. I’m just saying, in the past two years Florida has been hit by, what…, six Cat 3+ storms? that is more than the rest of my life combined.

ps. you might consider some rum as part of your hurricane supplies.